National Weather Service Miami FL
927am EDT Thu April 25 2024
...New
Issued at 922am EDT Thu April 25 2024
Not much to change in the morning update as the region remains firmly under the influence of broad high pressure. Still, a few quick showers could develop along sea breeze boundaries, but chances remain fairly low.
Current forecast philosophy remains on track and no significant changes are required attm. Expect another warm afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s across SoFlo.
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 141am EDT Thu April 25 2024
Mid-level ridging over the Central US will gradually shift east through the late week period resulting in continued dynamic subsidence and reinforcement of the dry and stable airmass over SFL. At the surface initially weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will prevail today, with the weak gradient favoring a sea-breeze driven wind regime. High temperatures will remain seasonable, ranging from the lower 80s near the east coast to the mid to upper 80s over the west coast/Interior. An isolated shower or two can't be totally ruled out over the Interior this afternoon near the maximum sea-breeze convergence zone, but given the dry mid-levels suspect most updrafts will struggle to break the cap, and therefore any cumulus buildups remain shallow. Given the light flow and dry airmass, another seasonably cool night can be expected tonight with lows generally in the 60s... certainly welcome for late April.
On Friday the earlier weak Atlantic high will be replaced by a stronger high building southward. This tightening of the pressure gradient will result in an increase in easterly flow and thus a weakening of the Gulf breeze circulation. Temperatures will remain similar over the east coast (although dewpoints will slightly increase), but slightly increase over the western half of the area, but should remain seasonable overall. Given the continued influence of mid-level ridging rainfall is once again not expected.
Long Term
(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 141am EDT Thu April 25 2024
Mid-level ridging will establish itself over the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, displacing the storm track well north of the area. At the surface (initially strong) high pressure over the western Atlantic will be the main feature of interest supporting breezy easterly winds through the period, although the high will gradually be weakening into next week. Generally dry conditions will prevail given the influence of the ridge, although some shallow coastal convergence generated showers can't be ruled out over the east coast and Atlantic waters. Temperatures will be characteristic of a strong easterly regime with the warmest highs (generally upper 80s) over the Interior/west coast with cooler highs (generally low to mid 80s) over the east coast. The reverse will be true with overnight lows with milder readings (low 70s) over the east coast and 60s over the Interior/west coast.
Marine
Issued at 141am EDT Thu April 25 2024
Generally benign conditions are expected today as light easterly flow prevails over the area. Easterly winds and seas will increase Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure north of the area builds southward.
Beaches
Issued at 141am EDT Thu April 25 2024
There will be a high risk of rip currents over the Palm Beach coastline today, with a moderate risk over the remainder of the east coast beaches. The rip current risk will increase to high over all the east coast Friday into the weekend as easterly flow increases.
Fire Weather
Issued at 141am EDT Thu April 25 2024
The dry airmass will remain in place through the end of the week over portions of Interior and SW Florida as generally easterly flow continues to prevail. Minimum RHs below 40% can be expected over these portions of the area through Friday, with localized values approaching 35% this afternoon. Although fuels will remain dry (the Significant Fire Potential Forecast remains in the orange category), winds should remain below fire weather headline criteria through the period.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.
High Rip Current Risk from 2pm EDT this afternoon through Saturday evening for FLZ172-173.
AM...None. GM...None.
