NFL Weather Week 12: Rain, wind in forecast will affect fantasy start 'em, sit 'em decisions | Sporting News (2024)

We were spared a snow game last week, but wind and rain still caused some problems around the league. Fortunately, there's no snow in the Week 12 NFL weather forecast, but once again, rain showers and gusty winds will affect several matchups, particularly those in Cleveland, Jacksonville, Carolina, and Seattle. As always,RotoGrinders' meteorologist Kevin Roth is here to help us break down the weather updates you need to know before locking in your fantasy start 'em sit 'em decisions.

Before we get into the Week 12 forecasts, here's a reminder that if you have any questions about sports weather or how weather could impact play (and, potentially, your fantasy, DFS, and gambling decisions), don't hesitate to reach out to RotoGrinders' meteorologist Kevin Roth on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) or check out the hourly NFL weather forecasts on RotoGrinders. To take your game to the next level, subscribe to RotoGrinders' exclusive WeatherEdge tool and see how different weather conditions have impacted historical scoring.

If a game isn't mentioned below, it's because it doesn't even have 10-mph winds or a 20-percent chance of rain in the forecast.

WEEK 12 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers

NFL Week 12 weather forecast and updates

Forecasts courtesy ofKevin Roth at RotoGrinders

Buccaneers @ Browns.There's over a 50-percent chance of rain and winds around 20 mph in store for this matchup. That doesn't completely rule out guys like Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, or Amari Cooper, but it certainly doesn't help their causes. Pending a worsening forecast, we still view Mike Evans, Cooper, Godwin, and David Njoku as "must-starts," but be careful with Brady, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and the kickers.

Bears @ Jets. A 50-65-percent chance of rain and winds in the 10-15-mph range await these two anemic passing offenses. Those conditions aren't prohibitive, but they certainly don't help. Justin Fields is still in play because of his running ability, but it's tough for us to recommend any pass-catchers or kickers given all the factors. (Update:The odds of rain are higher and it should be steady all game, but the wind isn't supposed to be quite as gusty. With Trevor Siemian expected to start for Justin Fields and Mike White starting for New York, it's still tough to recommend any receivers or the kickers.)

Falcons @ Commanders.The forecast for this game is similar to Bears-Jets, though the likelihood of rain is a little lower. Because of the matchup, we'd still stick with players in the Commanders' passing game, but Drake London and the kickers lose a little luster. As always, though, watch the forecast. If prolonged periods of heavy rain are projected, that could be enough to pivot away from Curtis Samuel and Taylor Heinicke. (Update:The rain could be steady and heavy very early on but lighten up throughout the rest of the game.)

WEEK 12 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers

NFL Weather Week 12: Rain, wind in forecast will affect fantasy start 'em, sit 'em decisions | Sporting News (1)

Broncos @ Panthers.With just a 15-percent chance of rain and winds in the 10-13-mph range, there's no reason to let weather affect your start 'em, sit 'em decisions for players in this contest unless the forecast worsens. (Update:There's a much higher chance of rain early in the game, and wind gusts could reach 15 mph. Overall, this isn't a prohibitive forecast for guys like Russell Wilson or Courtland Sutton, but there's no need to force anyone into your lineups.)

Raiders @ Seahawks.Wind won't be a worry in this game, but there's over an 80-percent chance of showers. The severity of the rain will be key, and that's something we won't know until closer to kickoff. As it stands, we'd still play DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Davante Adams, and probably Foster Moreau, but don't take risks if you don't need to. (Update:Forecasts now show a lower chance of rain early in the game, but there's still a decent likelihood of showers late.Fortunately, it doesn't look very heavy.)

Ravens @ Jaguars.There's a 50-percent chance of rain, especially early, and around 15-mph winds. There are only a handful of must-starts in these passing attacks (Christian Kirk, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews), but you can still try Zay Jones, Demarcus Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, and Evan Engram even though their outlooks aren't quite as favorable given the conditions.

Bengals @ Titans:Winds could gust up to around 20 mph, so be careful with Evan McPherson. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are still must-starts, though, given the favorable matchup.

WEEK 12 FANTASY PICKS: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em

All of this is subject to change as we get closer to kickoff. You can follow meteorologist Kevin Roth on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) and check out the hourly NFL weather forecasts on RotoGrinders. For the best weather-related fantasy advice, take a look at WeatherEdge.

NFL Weather Week 12: Rain, wind in forecast will affect fantasy start 'em, sit 'em decisions | Sporting News (2024)

FAQs

NFL Weather Week 12: Rain, wind in forecast will affect fantasy start 'em, sit 'em decisions | Sporting News? ›

NFL Weather Week 12: Light rain, wind in forecast unlikely to affect fantasy start 'em, sit 'em decisions. Last week's Eagles-Chiefs game was impacted more than originally expected by steady rain, but for the most part, it's been a remarkably mild November across the league.

How does wind affect fantasy football? ›

At lower wind speeds, QBs average 15-20 points, while at higher speeds, the average shifts closer to 10 points. Replicating this for WRs, we see a similar, but less severe pattern. As wind speed increases, the average WR performance decreases. Unlock the 2024 Ultimate Draft Kit!

What will the weather be like in fantasy football week 14? ›

MEDIUM impact.

Winds are going to be the biggest issue during the game. Sustained speeds will be in the high-teens gusting to the low-20s. No rain and the temperature during game time will be in the low-70s.

How do weather conditions impact the game of football? ›

Extreme weather conditions can significantly impact the quality of play on the field. Heavy rain can make the playing surface slippery, leading to fumbles and incomplete passes. It can also affect a team's ability to execute its game plan, as quarterbacks may struggle to throw accurately in wet conditions.

What is the weather like in Fantasy Football Week 16? ›

LOW impact.

There's a small chance of rain, around 20%, but I don't expect that to impact the game at all. Winds will be light and temperatures will be in the low-50s. Good to go with all the usual players.

How does bad weather affect fantasy football? ›

The passing game sees a greater impact than the running game, and actually, there is an easy 15/25/35 rule (see below) to help. Rushing is rarely impacted; the only significant downturn comes in temperatures of 90+ degrees and/or severe downpour. That's it.

Does 15 mph wind affect football? ›

Bettors make common mistakes when analyzing kicking data in windy conditions, and the most significant error comes when looking at “mild” wind (10-15 mph). The difference is almost negligible when looking at field-goal percentage in 0-15 mph winds (~83%) vs. 15-20 mph (~80%).

What is the weather like in fantasy football Week 13? ›

With a moderate weather impact, an 86% chance of rain, a 51°F temperature, and seven mph winds, each team must prepare for potential rain affecting players' footing, ball security, and passing accuracy. Arizona in Pittsburgh is another matchup with a weather impact.

How accurate are NFL fantasy projections? ›

Projections fluctuated wildly game-to-game, by +-40 a couple dozen times and +105 in one instance. That's why only 3.6% (not great, not terrible) of games have a difference less than 1. But over a large sample size, it averaged out to be stunningly accurate. One team even had an average difference of 0.03.

What happens after week 14 in fantasy? ›

ESPN has set fourteen (14) weeks in the regular season as the fixed setting for all Public (standard) leagues and it thus cannot be altered. Playoffs will begin in Week 15 and finish in Week 18.

What happens if an NFL game gets rained out? ›

In such cases where a game cannot be played on its scheduled date, especially in the regular season, the league has the options of rescheduling the contest to any available day and, if the stadium cannot be used, relocating the contest to the opponent's stadium or a neutral site (usually another nearby NFL stadium or a ...

What is considered a windy NFL game? ›

All together, when wind is 15+ mph, we should have a bit of a concern. Once it's 25+, it's a significant concern. Add in temperatures below 35, and the impact downgrades the passing game.

How does rain affect an NFL game? ›

It becomes more difficult to pass the football, get traction in the run game, and everything in between. If you see heavy rain in the forecast, you might want to take the game's under, or at the very minimum, not bet the over. Rain also has a tendency to bring down the quality of play.

How accurate is a 16 day weather forecast? ›

The Short Answer: A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Who should I start fantasy football week 16? ›

  • STARTS: Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Alvin Kamara, Matthew Stafford (low-end QB1), Taysom Hill (low-end TE1)
  • SITS: Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, Juwan Johnson, both DSTs.
  • SLEEPERS: Rashid Shaheed (low-end WR3 with upside if Chris Olave is out)
Dec 23, 2023

Who should I start Week 15 fantasy football? ›

This game could be a tough watch, much like last week's Raiders game and the Chargers game from two weeks ago.
  • STARTS: Austin Ekeler, Davante Adams (WR2)
  • SITS: Jakobi Meyers, Gerald Everett, Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah, both QBs.
  • SLEEPERS: Josh Palmer (WR3 or deep PPR flex), Chargers DST, Raiders DST.
Dec 16, 2023

Does wind affect draft? ›

Wind usually increases chimney draft. But in some situations, such as on an ascending roofline, rising winds can create back puffing. Sometimes a chimney cap will deflect rising winds into a chimney. If there is any significant leakage in the chimney's lower half, overall draft will be reduced.

How much does wind affect quarterbacks? ›

The effects are fairly slight for avg wind speeds from 0 mph up to about 15 mph, but above that threshold, the difference in fantasy points is about 12% less.

How does air pressure affect a football? ›

Air pressure can indeed affect the distance that the football will travel. The data from the experiment proved that the more air pressure, or the more inflated the ball is, then the farther the ball will travel.

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